Bihar 2025: The Battle for Power
The 2025 Bihar Assembly Election is one of the most closely watched contests in Indian politics. Once again, the people of Bihar are deciding between two major political faces — Nitish Kumar, the long-time Chief Minister known for his governance model, and Tejashwi Yadav, the young opposition leader promising change and opportunity for youth.
As voting ended across multiple phases, all eyes turned to the exit polls. These surveys, conducted after voters leave polling booths, attempt to capture early trends before official results are declared. While not always 100% accurate, they often reflect the mood of the electorate.
The 2025 Bihar exit polls reveal a fascinating story — a mix of continuity, competition, and change.
What Exit Polls Predict for Bihar 2025
According to the compiled data from 11 major pollsters, Bihar may be heading for another close election.
Most agencies give a slight edge to the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Nitish Kumar, while a few predict a tough fight with Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left alliance).
On average, the NDA is projected to win between 130 and 160 seats out of 243, crossing the majority mark of 122. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure between 80 and 110 seats, while others, including smaller regional parties and independents, may share the remaining 10–15 seats.
These numbers suggest that Nitish Kumar’s alliance could return to power, but with a reduced margin compared to previous elections.
Nitish Kumar’s Edge: Experience and Rural Network
Nitish Kumar’s long political career continues to shape Bihar’s power landscape. Despite facing criticism and shifting alliances over the years, his image as an “experienced administrator” still appeals to a large part of Bihar’s rural and middle-aged population.
His government’s focus on infrastructure, women’s empowerment, and law-and-order stability resonates with many voters. The NDA’s grassroots organization, particularly the BJP’s strong cadre network, helps them mobilize support efficiently in the final stages of campaigning.
However, the exit polls also show signs of fatigue among urban and young voters, who may be seeking new leadership. This is where Tejashwi Yadav gains ground.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Rise: The Face of Change
Tejashwi Yadav, the leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Mahagathbandhan alliance, has emerged as the most popular chief-ministerial face among young and first-time voters.
In many exit poll surveys, Tejashwi is preferred as CM by around one-third of respondents, while Nitish remains second. This shows that even if the NDA leads in seat count, the RJD leader’s individual popularity is on the rise.
Tejashwi’s campaign centered on employment, inflation, and social justice. His message of “Nayi Soch, Naya Bihar” (New Thinking, New Bihar) found resonance among youth, migrant workers, and lower-income groups.
The Mahagathbandhan also appears to have improved its seat distribution strategy, minimizing vote splits in key regions such as Seemanchal, Bhojpur, and Mithilanchal.
What Makes This Election So Close
There are several reasons why the 2025 Bihar election remains unpredictable even after the exit polls:
- Narrow Margins – In many constituencies, the winning margin is expected to be within a few thousand votes.
- High Turnout – The voter turnout was higher than in 2020, especially among youth and women, which can swing results.
- Caste Dynamics – Bihar’s social composition plays a huge role. Shifts within key communities like Yadavs, Kurmis, Dalits, and Muslims can alter outcomes.
- Alliance Stability – Bihar has witnessed frequent political re-alignments. Exit polls can’t always capture the impact of recent changes in alliances.
- Last-Minute Swings – Campaign narratives, local candidate image, and even weather or logistics on polling days can affect results.
Seat Share Estimates (Approximate Range)
| Alliance | Predicted Seats (Range) | Likely Status |
|---|---|---|
| NDA (JDU + BJP + Allies) | 130–160 | Edge to Majority |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress + Left) | 80–110 | Strong Opposition |
| Others (LJP, AIMIM, Independents) | 10–15 | Key Vote Splitters |
Vote Share Trends
While the NDA appears to have a lead in seats, the vote share difference is narrow — around 2–3% in most exit poll averages. This means a small swing in a few regions could change the final picture completely.
The NDA’s rural support base remains strong, but the Mahagathbandhan’s gains in urban centers and among youth may help balance the scales.
Public Mood: Nitish’s Governance vs Tejashwi’s Promise
The central narrative of this election revolves around trust vs change.
Nitish Kumar represents stability, governance, and continuity. He appeals to voters who value consistent administration and peace.
Tejashwi Yadav represents hope, youth, and a break from old politics. His message connects emotionally with those who believe Bihar deserves a generational shift.
Both leaders have clear strengths: Nitish’s experience and Tejashwi’s energy. That’s why the 2025 election has become not just a political battle, but a symbolic one between two contrasting visions for Bihar’s future.
Counting Day Expectations
As the counting day approaches, both camps are bracing for a nail-biting finish.
Political analysts predict that the NDA could form the government if its seat count crosses 130. But if results tighten to below 125, coalition talks, independent support, and smaller parties could play a decisive role.
The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, is hoping that last-phase voting and anti-incumbency will push it closer to victory.
One thing is certain: Bihar’s final results will be watched nationally, as they will signal the direction of Indian politics ahead of the 2026 general elections.
Conclusion
The Bihar Exit Polls 2025 suggest that the state stands at a crossroads. Nitish Kumar’s NDA seems slightly ahead, but Tejashwi Yadav’s rising popularity and the narrow margins make this a contest that’s too close to call.
Whether Bihar chooses continuity or change, the results will reflect deeper shifts in its political and social fabric. What’s clear is that both leaders — Nitish and Tejashwi — have successfully connected with their respective bases, making this one of Bihar’s most competitive elections in recent memory.
The final outcome will not just decide who rules Bihar, but also define the tone of national politics in the coming years.
